On March 13, 2026 — Goldman Sachs raised
its US recession probability to 25%. The
S&P 500 is at its most expensive valuation
since the dot-com crash of the year 2000.
February saw 92,000 jobs vanish. Oil is
heading toward $110 a barrel. And tariffs
are at their highest level in over a century.

History does not repeat. But it rhymes.
And right now — 2026 is rhyming loudly
with 1929.

Where The US Economy Stands Today — March 14, 2026

"Goldman Sachs raised US recession
probability to 25% on March 13 2026.
IMF puts it at 40%. February 2026 saw
92,000 jobs lost. S&P 500 is at its most
expensive valuation since the year 2000.
Brent crude heading toward $110 per barrel.
Consumer confidence at decade low of 84.5."

Factor	1929 Great Depression	2026 Trumpian Recession	Verdict
Tariff policy	Smoot-Hawley Act — triggered global retaliation	Trump tariffs — highest US rate in a century — 16 nations retaliating	Direct parallel
Stock market	Prices rose 6x in 8 years — economists called it permanently high — days before the crash	S&P 500 CAPE ratio 39.8 — most expensive since dot-com crash year 2000	Direct Parallel
Federal Reserve	Fed raised rates 1928-29 — wrong timing — triggered global recession	Fed cannot cut — stagflation trap — cuts pushed to late 2026	Partial Parallel
Job market	Farm sector collapsing — foreclosures rising — warning signs ignored	92,000 jobs lost Feb 2026 — underlying growth near zero — dismissed by White House	Direct parallel
Global trade	Retaliatory tariffs worldwide — international trade collapsed — Germany hit before USA	16 nations under Section 301 — global growth below 3% — first time since 2020	Direct Parallel
Consumer confidence	Public sentiment collapsed after Black Thursday October 24 1929	Conference Board 84.5 — decade low — near recession threshold 80	Developing parallel
Presidential response	Hoover said economy fundamentally sound — days before full collapse	Trump calls it roaring economy while 92,000 jobs lost in one month	Direct Parallel
Market speculation	Ordinary people bought stocks on 10% margin — 10% drop wiped everyone out	Private credit sector 3 trillion dollars — unregulated — leveraged loans	Partial Parallel
Energy and commodities	Agricultural prices fell 50% — commodity producers devastated worldwide	Brent crude heading $110 — Strait of Hormuz 20 million barrels at risk	Inverse parallel
Global transmission	Gold standard forced all nations to raise rates — locked in depression together	Dollar dominance transmits US tariff pain to every trading economy simultaneously	Structural Parallel

7 Common Points between 1929 and 2026 :

- Tariff trigger — Both crises driven
  by aggressive US Republican tariff
  policy. 1929 Smoot-Hawley.
  2026 Trump tariffs.

- Overvalued markets — Stocks at
  extreme historical valuations.
  Economists called them justified
  just before collapse. Both times.

- Fed policy trap — Central bank
  unable to respond correctly.
  1929 raised rates. 2026 cannot
  cut due to stagflation.

- Labour market cracks — Job losses
  clearly visible before official crash.
  Warning signs dismissed both times.

- Presidential denial — Hoover said
  fundamentally sound. Trump says
  roaring. Same script. 97 years apart.

- Global transmission — US economic
  pain spread simultaneously to every
  major economy. 1929 via gold standard.
  2026 via dollar dominance.

- Key difference — 2026 has FDIC —
  SEC — Fed crisis playbooks — and
  unemployment insurance. But Goldman
  chief economist warns no playbook
  exists for tariff-induced recession.

---

RECESSION PROBABILITY

Institution	Recession Probability	GDP Forecast 2026	Key Concern
Goldman Sachs	25%	Slowing sharply	Jobs + oil + tariffs
IMF	40%	1.5% (was 2.8%)	Tariffs + trade war
OECD	Not stated	Below 3% globally	Global slowdown
JPMorgan	35 to 45%	1.4%	Policy uncertainty
Prediction Markets	29%	Not stated	Real money bets

SCENARIO PROBABILITY :

Scenario	Probability	Trigger	Impact
Soft landing	25%	Tariff resolution — Hormuz reopens quickly	GDP 1.5 to 2% — no official recession
Mild recession	45%	Tariffs persist — oil stays high — jobs keep falling	2 quarters negative GDP — unemployment 6 to 7%
Deep recession	25%	Hormuz blockade extends — market correction — credit crisis	GDP minus 3 to 5% — unemployment above 8%
Depression level event	5%	Full trade war — financial contagion — policy failure	1929 scale — generational damage

What to watch in the next 30 Days:

- Strait of Hormuz — resolution or
  escalation moves oil $20 either way

- March jobs report — losses above 50,000
  means Goldman odds cross 35%

- Fed March meeting — delayed cut signal
  means immediate market repricing

- Consumer confidence April reading —
  below 80 means recession confirmed

- S&P 500 correction beyond 10% —
  circuit breakers will be tested

Quote of the day :

“This is not a trade dispute. This is the dismantling of a global economic order built since 1945.”- — Dr. Anurag | TrumpianRecession.com

Disclaimer:

Disclaimer: This is economic research
and educational analysis only.
Not financial advice.
All data verified from Goldman Sachs —
IMF — OECD — Bureau of Labor Statistics
and Conference Board — March 2026.